Probabilistic approach for epistemic analysis of lake tapping of koyna dam for future forecasting

The statistical technique like confidence interval (CI) is used to determine the confidence limits of water head over lake tapping site of Koyna Dam (India, Maharashtra) from water level data taken from government of Maharashtra 2000-2010, which helps in future forecasting. It is the statistical technique which gives the Probable Value of the water head in the relative month. By studying these probable values of water heads, monthly variation in the heads seasonal variation can be achieved. Contour maps and variograms are studied to check the variation of Water head from year-2000-2010. It also helps to determine the probable nature by knowing the confidence Interval of heads and it is more useful and helpful for the water management of rain water which is accumulated on ground by the means of large reservoirs. Predication of rainfall and head variation is achieved.